Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x950a…5daf
sports · 15 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$50 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$51 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 2 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$51
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Over 75¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $12 +$6 +50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 +$4 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $34 +$38 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +249%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% +$2
sports 47% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $7 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $12 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $8 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $14 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 37¢ $40 22h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 22h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $1 30h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $71 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $13 47h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 47h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 47h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 26¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -8.7% -17.4% 45% 45% -34.5%
≤30d 11 -8.7% -17.4% 45% 45% -34.5%
≤90d 11 -8.7% -17.4% 45% 45% -34.5%
all 11 -8.7% -17.4% 45% 45% -34.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 45% -34.5%
10% -25.3% 45% -40.8%
15% -32.5% 45% -46.5%
20% -39.1% 27% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.63 · official $10.63 (match) · 24 history records