Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x950a…71e4 sports 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$474 (+2%) realized +$469 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%55W / 77L
Whale WR30%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,393
7 days+$1,780
14 days+$724
30 days+$1,671
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$733
other 18% +$1,084
world 11% −$327
crypto 3% −$411
politics 1% −$180
tech 1% −$193
economics 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +23.8% +12.0% 62% 62% +59.0%
≤30d 25 +6.0% -4.1% 52% 52% +14.5%
≤90d 39 +5.4% -4.6% 49% 49% +8.8%
all 132 +3.6% -6.3% 42% 42% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 42% -6.9%
10% -15.3% 40% -15.8%
15% -23.5% 38% -23.9%
20% -31.0% 36% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 30% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$183 vs −$123 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$380
Realized+$469
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses55 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)30%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions3
Markets (closed)132 / 135
History coverage320d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 58¢ $210 $212 +$2 (+1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance South Africa 26¢ 26¢ $140 $143 +$3 (+2%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 28 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $406 +$366 +90%
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 28 $202 +$131 +65%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $224 +$326 +146%
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $223 +$217 +97%
Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft Jun 27 $407 +$533 +131%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win on 2026 Jun 26 $312 +$267 +85%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $61 +$41 +68%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $269 +$99 +37%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $195 +$272 +140%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $380 −$375 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $391 +$116 +30%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $708 −$700 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $244 −$240 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $213 −$161 -76%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $70 −$69 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $233 +$201 +86%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $736 +$806 +110%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $295 +$183 +62%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $407 −$43 -10%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $71 −$70 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $182 −$180 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $102 +$373 +365%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 09 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? May 09 $72 −$70 -98%
Spread: Club Bolívar (-1.5) May 09 $1 +$2 +165%
Club Bolívar vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Utah Apr 30 $150 +$119 +79%
Wild vs. Blues Apr 16 $250 +$282 +113%
Stars vs. Ducks Apr 13 $200 −$200 -100%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 13 $30 +$22 +73%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 08 $150 −$148 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $230 +$151 +66%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 28 $160 −$160 -100%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) Mar 28 $76 +$73 +95%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? Mar 27 $40 +$114 +284%
Nets vs. Warriors Mar 27 $100 +$89 +89%
Lightning vs. Flames Mar 23 $215 −$121 -56%
Leeds United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5 Mar 21 $110 −$110 -100%
FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $150 −$150 -100%
FC Lorient vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 2.5 Mar 16 $100 +$96 +96%
Le Havre AC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5 Mar 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Udinese Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $152 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $61 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 26¢ $41 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India SELL Ireland 33¢ $46 1h
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India BUY Ireland 35¢ $51 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 26¢ $102 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 13h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $224 13h
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 14h
Algeria vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 14h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $51 19h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 50¢ $223 40h
Will Caleb Malhotra be drafted with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NHL Draft BUY Yes 43¢ $407 44h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under $26 45h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Netherlands win on 2026 BUY 53¢ $312 3d
Will Keaton Wagler be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 5d
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 72¢ $269 5d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $195 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $380 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $125 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 79¢ $201 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $66 11d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $708 11d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $122 12d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $122 12d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $52 12d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $213 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.28 · official $380.28 (match) · 269 history records