Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:22:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x950b…0190 other 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$50 (-0%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 121L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$22
politics 27% −$11
sports 18% −$8
crypto 11% −$11
world 4% −$5
culture 4% −$6
economics 4% −$3
finance 2% −$3
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 65 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 117 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
all 136 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage103d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 93¢ 92¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 20 $47 −$2 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $158 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 18 $62 −$1 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $58 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $411 −$2 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $423 −$2 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $342 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $142 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$1 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 12 $47 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $614 −$2 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $40 $0 +1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $61 −$2 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $69 $0 -1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $73 −$2 -3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $215 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $85 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $58 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $39 $0 -0%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $52 −$3 -5%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $123 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $117 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $153 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $48 −$1 -2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 03 $63 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 03 $24 −$2 -10%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $58 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $63 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $63 5h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 6h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $45 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $47 20h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 20h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 28h
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $49 29h
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $49 35h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 97¢ $58 36h
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $58 43h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 43h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 47h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $53 2d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $53 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $61 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $31 2d
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $31 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 3d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 3d
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.02 · official $58.02 (match) · 511 history records