Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:30:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x950c…d952 politics 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%1W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$2
other 33% −$1
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 44 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses1 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage608d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $9 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 09 $9 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Jun 23 $4 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Diddy released from custody by Monday? Dec 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Oct 16 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 16 $160 $0 -0%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D House Oct 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win US Michigan Senate Election? Oct 15 $294 $0 -0%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 15 $93 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Wisconsin Presidential Electio Oct 15 $96 $0 -0%
Will any other Republican Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Oct 15 $154 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Pennsylvania Presidential Elec Oct 15 $314 $0 -0%
2024 Balance of Power: Other Oct 15 $41 $0 -0%
Nigel Farage next Conservative party leader? Oct 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Massachusetts US Senate Electi Oct 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Virginia Presidential Election Oct 15 $111 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Connecticut Presidential Elect Oct 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 15 $75 $0 -0%
Will a Democrat win Nebraska US Senate Election? Oct 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Florida US Senate Election? Oct 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Montana Presidential Election? Oct 15 $29 $0 -0%
2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 215+ Oct 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Texas US Senate Election? Oct 15 $60 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win North Carolina Presidential El Oct 15 $142 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Elec Oct 15 $101 $0 -0%
Will RFK Jr. win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? Oct 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 15 $65 $0 -0%
Will a 3rd party candidate win the popular vote or the Presidency? Oct 15 $54 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Indiana Governor Election? Oct 15 $66 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Michigan Presidential Election Oct 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Oct 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Oct 14 $89 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2024 F1 season? Oct 14 $15 $0 -0%
Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? Oct 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win California Presidential Electi Oct 14 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Browns win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 14 $81 $0 -0%
Will Virginia be the tipping point state? Oct 14 $72 $0 -0%
Will a candidate from another party win Ohio US Senate Election? Oct 14 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Raiders win Super Bowl 2025? Oct 14 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 56m
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 1h
Netanyahu out by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $8 15d
Netanyahu out by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 15d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 30d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 30d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap SELL No 100¢ $9 66d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap BUY No 100¢ $9 66d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? SELL No 98¢ $8 349d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $8 349d
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect SELL No 100¢ $4 356d
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect BUY No 100¢ $4 356d
Will Haas be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 367d
Will Haas be the 2025 Constructors Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 367d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 378d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 378d
Diddy released from custody by Monday? BUY No 98¢ $1 567d
Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec SELL No 100¢ $57 607d
Will any other Republican Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec BUY No 100¢ $57 607d
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? SELL No 100¢ $53 607d
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 100¢ $53 607d
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D House SELL No 99¢ $64 607d
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, D Senate, D House BUY No 99¢ $64 607d
Will a candidate from another party win US Michigan Senate Election? SELL No 100¢ $78 607d
Will a candidate from another party win US Michigan Senate Election? BUY No 100¢ $78 607d
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? SELL No 100¢ $53 607d
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 100¢ $53 607d
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? SELL No 100¢ $29 607d
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? SELL No 100¢ $40 607d
Will the Panthers win Super Bowl 2025? BUY No 100¢ $29 607d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records