Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
95 0x950c…bfd8 crypto 950 markets active 0h ago coverage 85d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,187 (-20%) realized −$9,190 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate80%756W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day30.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 85d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$552
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 44% -18.4%
≤30d 238 -3.5% -12.7% 45% 45% -18.2%
≤90d 949 -2.1% -11.4% 80% 13% -10.6%
all 949 -2.1% -11.4% 80% 13% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 13% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 13% -19.2%
15% -27.6% 13% -27.0%
20% -34.7% 13% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$17 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$9,190
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses756 / 193
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)949 / 950
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day30.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 949 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 45¢ 56¢ $13 $17 +$3 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$14 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $67 +$62 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$39 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$13 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$16 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$33 +122%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$20 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$27 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$29 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $72 +$86 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $79 +$141 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$66 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$14 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$27 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$33 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$16 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$16 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $36 +$54 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $37 +$58 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$70 +177%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $9 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $66 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $62 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.64 · official $15.45 · 3500 history records