Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x950d…dac5 other 152 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1040 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$27 (+6%) realized +$21 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day1040.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% −$36
other 24% +$118
finance 23% −$48
world 9% +$2
politics 5% −$7
tech 3% −$2
sports 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1040 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+62.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +79.3% +62.2% 35% 35% +9.6%
≤30d 37 +79.3% +62.2% 35% 35% +9.6%
≤90d 37 +79.3% +62.2% 35% 35% +9.6%
all 37 +79.3% +62.2% 35% 35% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1040.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +62.2% 35% +9.6%
10% ← realistic here +46.7% 30% -0.9%
15% +32.5% 27% -10.5%
20% +19.5% 16% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +93% → late +67% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
21.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×11.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.19 per $1 lost it wins $6.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions128
Markets (closed)37 / 152
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1040.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 128 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 7¢ $2 $124 +$122 (+7200%)
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $93 $46 −$47 (-50%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $77 $39 −$39 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+50%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $120 on the final trading day of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+117%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+100%)
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+100%)
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+25%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+141%)
Will Solana dip to $20 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Marco Rubio enter Iran by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+200%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+75%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $110 in June? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +88%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 27 $19 +$3 +17%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 27 $44 +$14 +31%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 27 $1 $0 -5%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $0 $0 -27%
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 27 $0 $0 -5%
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $2 +$1 +60%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 27 $0 $0 +48%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 27 $0 $0 -1%
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? Jun 27 $0 $0 -1%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? Jun 26 $1 $0 -26%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? Jun 26 $0 +$1 +872%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 26 $1 $0 +48%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 26 $1 $0 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 26 $6 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 Jun 26 $0 $0 +98%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in June? Jun 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $130 in June? Jun 26 $3 +$2 +80%
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the June meeting? Jun 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31 Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? Jun 26 $0 $0 +48%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? Jun 26 $1 $0 +14%
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? Jun 26 $0 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 26 $0 $0 -34%
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? Jun 26 $1 $0 -1%
Chirayu Rana divorced? Jun 26 $1 $0 +48%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? Jun 25 $0 $0 +3637%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 25 $1 $0 -34%
Will STRC market cap hit $14B by June 30? Jun 25 $0 $0 -1%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? Jun 25 $0 $0 -34%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 25 $1 $0 -5%
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Jun 25 $0 $0 -10%
Anthropic CEO arrested? Jun 25 $0 $0 -37%
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? Jun 25 $1 $0 -53%
Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? Jun 25 $1 $0 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6m
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 7m
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 12m
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 15m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 18m
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 22m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 25m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 26m
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.70 · official $322.70 (match) · 3500 history records