Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x950e…f8e5
world · 14 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
−$94,911 -39%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35,031 · open −$60,103
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$61,248
Realized−$35,031
Unrealized−$60,103
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage104d
Avg bet$17,189
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12,056
7 days+$12,056
14 days−$8,704
30 days−$8,704
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 29¢ 14¢ $117,358 $58,000 −$59,358 (-51%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $2,000 $2,500 +$500 (+25%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $1,000 $623 −$377 (-38%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 20¢ 2¢ $993 $125 −$868 (-87%)
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? No 58¢ 0¢ $6,675 $0 −$6,675 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20,759 $0 −$20,759 (-100%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $3,600 $0 −$3,600 (-100%)
US forces enter Iran by April 30? No 1¢ 0¢ $21,978 $0 −$21,978 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $14,475 +$12,056 +83%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $21,297 −$20,759 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 13 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 08 $400 +$559 +140%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $6,822 −$634 -9%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 07 $6,675 −$6,675 -100%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 07 $43,923 +$5,877 +13%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $22,025 −$21,978 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Mar 02 $10 +$24 +245%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Mar 02 $50 +$100 +200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 81% −$79,010
crypto 9% −$20,759
tech 6% +$12,056
sports 3% −$6,675
politics 1% +$500
economics 1% −$1,245
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 44¢ $4,539 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 58¢ $4,919 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 60¢ $5,016 3d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10,398 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $2,804 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $481 12d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $7,612 12d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $14,419 40d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,860 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $4 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $2,655 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $2,401 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $302 42d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $17,000 46d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 57d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 57d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $598 57d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $10,500 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +83.3% +65.8% 100% 100% +65.8%
≤30d 2 -8.4% -17.1% 50% 50% -31.9%
≤90d 8 -21.6% -29.1% 38% 38% -36.3%
all 10 +27.2% +15.0% 50% 50% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.0% 50% -36.2%
10% ← realistic here +4.0% 40% -42.3%
15% -6.0% 40% -47.9%
20% -15.2% 40% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61,248.06 · official $61,248.06 (match) · 277 history records