Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:09:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
95 0x9512…a3d7 sports 174 markets active 1d ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,591 (+15%) realized +$7,591 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%105W / 68L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$292per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$272est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$148
7 days+$326
14 days+$1,151
30 days+$1,385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$2,496
other 30% +$4,557
crypto 3% +$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +65.4% +49.6% 100% 100% +45.4%
≤30d 20 +27.6% +15.5% 75% 75% +22.3%
≤90d 123 +3.1% -6.7% 57% 56% -1.0%
all 173 +9.8% -0.6% 61% 60% +3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 60% +3.4%
10% -10.1% 57% -6.5%
15% -18.8% 54% -15.5%
20% -26.8% 49% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$204 vs −$209 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7,591
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses105 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$272
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 174
History coverage122d
Avg bet$292
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $202 +$38 +19%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $101 +$79 +78%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $132 +$177 +134%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 04 $426 +$534 +125%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 04 $521 +$332 +64%
Tyler: Braden Shick vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 04 $305 −$300 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $203 −$200 -99%
Heilbronn: Max Schoenhaus vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 03 $102 +$98 +97%
Foggia: Laura Mair vs Yiming Dang Jun 03 $101 +$53 +52%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 03 $128 +$48 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $252 +$130 +51%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $796 +$330 +41%
Heilbronn: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Alexander Maarten Jong Jun 02 $203 −$200 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 27 $120 +$99 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 18 $26 +$26 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 +$50 +50%
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $100 +$89 +90%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 08 $153 +$142 +93%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $90 +$63 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 08 $104 −$100 -97%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs 1win (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $200 +$95 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Barletta: Nerman Fatic vs Federico Bondioli Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Rafael Jodar vs Tomas Machac Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $120 −$120 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Ignacio Buse vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Apr 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Apr 25 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? Apr 25 $254 −$254 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs MOUZ (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Apr 25 $322 −$322 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 25 $140 −$140 -100%
Bucharest Open: Mariano Navone vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 25 $870 −$870 -100%
Barletta: Michele Ribecai vs Lukas Neumayer Apr 25 $999 −$999 -100%
Capitals vs. Devils Apr 25 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-04-02? Apr 25 $1,206 −$1,206 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $440 +$284 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 15 $200 +$38 +19%
Barcelona Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Apr 15 $120 +$107 +89%
Valorant: Galatasaray Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - VCL Türkiye Apr 14 $139 +$102 +74%
Lightning vs. Bruins Apr 12 $200 +$200 +100%
Valorant: Sentinels vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Apr 11 $623 +$223 +36%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Apr 10 $500 +$323 +65%
Game Handicap: GX (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Apr 06 $2,419 +$1,404 +58%
Houston Astros vs. Athletics Apr 06 $1,371 +$1,048 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 76¢ $101 37h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 55¢ $101 41h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Germany w BUY 20¢ $28 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $132 2d
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling SELL Karl Poling 69¢ $853 11d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Iraq 44¢ $426 11d
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling BUY Karl Poling 41¢ $509 11d
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling BUY Karl Poling 42¢ $12 11d
Tyler: Braden Shick vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Masamichi Imamura 45¢ $305 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Diana Shnaider 50¢ $102 11d
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Diana Shnaider 53¢ $101 11d
Heilbronn: Max Schoenhaus vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Alejandro Moro Canas 50¢ $102 12d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 48¢ $51 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 74¢ $101 13d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca BUY Jakub Mensik 70¢ $101 13d
Foggia: Laura Mair vs Yiming Dang BUY Laura Mair 65¢ $101 13d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY GamerLegion 72¢ $128 13d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? SELL No 100¢ $1,126 13d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? BUY No 70¢ $796 13d
Heilbronn: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Alexander Maarten Jong BUY Alexander Maarten Jong 53¢ $203 13d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 54¢ $120 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 29d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $151 29d
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 29d
Will Sparta Rotterdam win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 52¢ $100 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 369 history records