Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:16:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
95 0x9514…9017 crypto 192 markets active 1h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,421 (-10%) realized −$3,258 · open −$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate55%103W / 85L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,825now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$2,213
14 days−$2,872
30 days−$2,724
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$1,594
world 32% −$1,615
other 20% −$505
finance 3% −$36
sports 1% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -2.4% -11.7% 66% 50% -21.9%
≤30d 131 -6.0% -15.0% 66% 44% -18.8%
≤90d 148 -2.3% -11.6% 62% 43% -17.6%
all 188 -9.9% -18.5% 55% 37% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 37% -19.9%
10% -26.3% 32% -27.5%
15% -33.4% 13% -34.5%
20% -40.0% 8% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$81 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$1,825
Realized−$3,258
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses103 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)188 / 192
History coverage257d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 92¢ 96¢ $1,148 $1,196 +$47 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? No 91¢ 78¢ $546 $471 −$75 (-14%)
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes 29¢ 19¢ $174 $114 −$60 (-34%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $120 $45 −$75 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $475 +$24 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $4 +$2 +45%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $115 +$3 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 19 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$15 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $77 −$73 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $2,309 +$162 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $900 +$97 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$6 -28%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $141 −$41 -29%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -90%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $943 +$57 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $201 +$12 +6%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $864 −$199 -23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$182 +588%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $286 56m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $221 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $40 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $499 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $118 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $14 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $93 14h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? SELL No 97¢ $2 19h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? SELL No 97¢ $41 19h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 69¢ $2 22h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 19? BUY Up 69¢ $2 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 95¢ $475 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $7 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $8 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $47 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,825.46 · official $1,825.47 (match) · 811 history records