Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:11:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

95 0x9514…2e1d sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$17 (-20%) realized −$2 · open −$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -83% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip

Net edge-85%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 144d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-84.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	5	-83.3%	-84.9%	0%	0%	-95.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-84.9%	0%	-95.1%
10%	-86.3%	0%	-95.6%
15%	-87.6%	0%	-96.0%
20%	-88.9%	0%	-96.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -83% · $-wt -95% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$3 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage

Net worth$38

Realized−$2

Unrealized−$15

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage144d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	48¢	34¢	$53	$38	−$15 (-28%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	Jan 27	$4	−$4	-100%
US government shutdown Saturday?	Jan 27	$19	−$4	-23%
Rams vs. Seahawks	Jan 25	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 26	Jan 25	$1	$0	-20%
Patriots vs. Broncos	Jan 25	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$54	1h
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	142d
US government shutdown Saturday?	SELL No	21¢	$4	142d
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY No	27¢	$9	143d
US government shutdown Saturday?	SELL No	26¢	$9	143d
Rams vs. Seahawks	BUY Rams	45¢	$4	144d
US government shutdown Saturday?	SELL No	20¢	$2	144d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 26	SELL Yes	3¢	$1	144d
Patriots vs. Broncos	BUY Broncos	0¢	$1	144d
Patriots vs. Broncos	BUY Broncos	0¢	$1	144d
Patriots vs. Broncos	BUY Broncos	1¢	$2	144d
Patriots vs. Broncos	BUY Broncos	5¢	$1	144d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 26	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	144d
US government shutdown Saturday?	BUY No	22¢	$10	144d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.36 · official $39.48 · 14 history records