Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:27:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
95 0x9515…1948 crypto 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate99%81W / 1L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$12
tech 0% +$1
other 0% −$7
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 26 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 82 +0.1% -9.4% 99% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$7 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses81 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage243d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $121 $121 +$0 (+0%)
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 17 $123 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 8? Jun 09 $125 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 07 $4 $0 +3%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? Jun 07 $5 $0 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? Jun 07 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? May 21 $107 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 03 $3 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $3 $0 +2%
Will Meta (META) close above $460 end of April? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla dip to $248 in April? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 03 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? Apr 29 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 23 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 16? Apr 20 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 12? Apr 13 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 11 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? Apr 05 $124 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 31? Apr 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 29? Mar 30 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 22? Mar 23 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 17? Mar 18 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 13? Mar 16 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 1? Mar 11 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 25? Feb 27 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $122 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 15 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 12? Feb 12 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86,000 on February 10? Feb 11 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 8? Feb 09 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 6? Feb 07 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on February 3? Feb 05 $118 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January? Feb 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January? Feb 01 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on January 28? Jan 28 $116 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $34 in January? Jan 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 26? Jan 27 $116 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $121 1h
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $123 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $125 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $107 33d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? BUY No 94¢ $5 37d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 37d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 37d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? BUY No 97¢ $4 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? BUY No 100¢ $105 52d
Will Tesla dip to $248 in April? BUY No 100¢ $6 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $111 62d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $104 67d
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 68d
Will Meta (META) close above $460 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 68d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 98¢ $3 68d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 99¢ $3 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $124 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $119 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $126 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $124 80d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $113 83d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 29? BUY No 100¢ $113 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $116 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $114 90d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $7 91d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $120 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $120 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.12 · official $127.12 (match) · 168 history records