Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9516…0bcb other 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$890 (-14%) realized −$1,011 · open +$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$1,140
sports 23% +$442
crypto 3% −$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -22.9% -30.2% 38% 36% -24.1%
≤30d 45 -22.9% -30.2% 38% 36% -24.1%
≤90d 45 -22.9% -30.2% 38% 36% -24.1%
all 45 -22.9% -30.2% 38% 36% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.2% 36% -24.1%
10% -36.9% 36% -31.4%
15% -43.0% 33% -38.0%
20% -48.6% 22% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$113 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized−$1,011
Unrealized+$121
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage7d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 90¢ $100 $271 +$171 (+171%)
Panama leading at halftime? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $21 −$15 -71%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 −$51 -50%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $21 +$5 +24%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $129 +$111 +86%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$91 -89%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 +$51 +165%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$88 +44%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $303 −$303 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$110 +55%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$168 +83%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $20 −$15 -74%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$25 -49%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$94 +47%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$22 -44%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$255 +250%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $204 −$140 -69%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $202 −$193 -96%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$80 +78%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$200 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$78 -77%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $102 −$82 -81%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 −$60 -59%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $252 +$241 +96%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$24 -78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $403 +$150 +37%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $507 −$507 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $303 +$132 +44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $304 −$294 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$556 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 5m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $51 31m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 17¢ $26 35m
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 34¢ $108 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 55¢ $28 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $31 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 10h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $101 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 16h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 20h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 23h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 54¢ $203 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 24h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $101 25h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 26h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $26 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.34 · official $271.34 (match) · 91 history records