Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:00:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
95 0x9517…f0b3 world 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23,469 (+42%) realized +$23,507 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate51%24W / 23L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$791per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$3,477now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$31
other 25% +$23,456
crypto 1% +$1
finance 1% +$3
tech 1% +$11
politics 1% −$49
economics 1% $0
culture 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -2.2% -11.5% 51% 2% -10.0%
≤30d 45 -2.2% -11.5% 51% 2% -10.0%
≤90d 45 -2.2% -11.5% 51% 2% -10.0%
all 47 +1.9% -7.8% 51% 4% +31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 4% +31.4%
10% -16.6% 2% +18.8%
15% -24.7% 2% +7.3%
20% -32.1% 2% -3.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$981 vs −$5 · ×188.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×206.0 per $1 lost it wins $206.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$3,477
Realized+$23,507
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses24 / 23
Open positions23
Markets (closed)47 / 70
History coverage259d
Avg bet$791
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 98¢ 96¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $300 $293 −$7 (-2%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 87¢ $300 $291 −$9 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 91¢ 94¢ $250 $260 +$10 (+4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $140 $150 +$11 (+8%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 94¢ 95¢ $148 $148 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $147 $147 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 93¢ 92¢ $109 $108 −$1 (-1%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $94 $95 +$1 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $89 $90 +$1 (+2%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? No 99¢ 99¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? No 93¢ 79¢ $86 $73 −$13 (-15%)
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? No 94¢ 99¢ $68 $71 +$4 (+5%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? No 95¢ 100¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+5%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 96¢ $38 $58 +$20 (+52%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? No 97¢ 32¢ $80 $26 −$54 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 22 $150 +$14 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $66 +$4 +5%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $89 +$6 +6%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? Jun 20 $68 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $36 −$14 -39%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 20 $143 +$12 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $32 +$4 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $139 −$4 -3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $150 +$8 +5%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $25 $0 +2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $29 −$1 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $26 −$4 -15%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $76 −$26 -34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $150 +$11 +8%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $60 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $18 −$6 -31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $75 −$31 -41%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $109 +$10 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 18 $62 −$17 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $70 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $72 +$1 +2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 17 $27 +$2 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $35 +$4 +10%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $75 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $75 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 16? Jun 16 $75 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $75 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $75 +$4 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $35 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $298 $0 -0%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $35 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $70 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $70 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $70 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 16 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 16 $75 −$3 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 16 $50 −$2 -3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 21? Jun 16 $75 −$2 -3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 19? Jun 16 $75 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 16 $75 −$2 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $6 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Dec 02 $36,038 $0 +0%
Will the EU impose new tariffs on US goods in 2025? Dec 01 $12,499 +$23,450 +188%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 89¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 89¢ $9 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 96¢ $193 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 96¢ $51 1h
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $150 1h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $301 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $80 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 96¢ $26 1h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $301 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 96¢ $30 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $300 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $300 2h
Hasan Piker arrested by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $86 2h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $94 23h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $89 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 43¢ $22 42h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $250 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $89 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $300 46h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $36 2d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $148 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $147 2d
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY No 94¢ $68 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY No 93¢ $109 2d
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $68 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 60¢ $28 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $13 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $48 2d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,477.13 · official $3,477.13 (match) · 272 history records