Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9518…6c1e crypto 441 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$64 (-3%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate52%226W / 211L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day63.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$38
14 days−$84
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$132
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 -12.0% -20.4% 41% 33% -16.3%
≤30d 437 -7.6% -16.4% 52% 37% -15.0%
≤90d 437 -7.6% -16.4% 52% 37% -15.0%
all 437 -7.6% -16.4% 52% 37% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 37% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 24% -23.1%
15% -31.7% 17% -30.6%
20% -38.4% 11% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses226 / 211
Open positions4
Markets (closed)437 / 441
History coverage14d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day63.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? No 62¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? No 65¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? No 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? No 63¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -31%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 63¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.92 · official $4.92 (match) · 1349 history records