Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:03:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x951f…58c2 other 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 243L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$34
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$44
sports 23% −$19
politics 10% −$13
economics 8% −$7
culture 6% −$8
world 4% $0
crypto 3% −$3
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 254 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)254 / 254
History coverage139d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 254 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $119 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $188 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $978 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $431 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $455 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $207 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $374 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $185 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $550 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $122 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $298 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $336 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $457 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $182 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $690 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $339 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $455 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $150 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $428 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $447 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $282 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $284 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $454 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $151 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $447 −$3 -1%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $153 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $400 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $395 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $320 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $149 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $554 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 50m
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $57 2h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 3h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 4h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 10h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 11h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 15h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 17h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 22h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 23h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $40 23h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $17 25h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 26h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 28h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 29h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 35h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 39h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $58 40h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 42h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 43h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 45h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $58 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1432 history records