Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:31:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x951f…bd58 world 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 38L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$3
other 17% +$12
politics 9% $0
economics 8% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 11% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 20 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 20 -1.0% -10.4% 25% 0% -9.9%
all 52 +1.1% -8.5% 27% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 2% -8.9%
10% -17.3% 2% -17.6%
15% -25.3% 2% -25.5%
20% -32.6% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage302d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 19 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $30 −$1 -3%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $26 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $117 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $42 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $74 $0 -0%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $19 +$12 +61%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 05 $22 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 13 $81 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Oct 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $7 $0 +1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 24 $4 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Sep 02 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 27 $4 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 25 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $40 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $26 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $36 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $36 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $21 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $41 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $41 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $41 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $41 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $41 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $18 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $42 22d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.20 · official $40.20 (match) · 175 history records