Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:00:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x9521…9e2b
world · 170 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$76 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$83 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$840
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses85 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage78d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 169 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,135
7 days+$578
14 days+$305
30 days+$436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $833 $840 +$7 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $652 +$1,270 +195%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $392 −$206 -53%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 11 $315 +$3 +1%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 11 $200 +$4 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $200 +$64 +32%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $199 +$66 +33%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $506 −$489 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $500 −$477 -95%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 07 $252 +$4 +2%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $969 +$239 +25%
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Jun 05 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? Jun 05 $210 +$96 +46%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 04 $200 +$3 +2%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 04 $207 −$64 -31%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $103 −$95 -92%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? May 31 $35 −$24 -68%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? May 31 $101 −$93 -92%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 29 $500 +$14 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $100 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 28 $850 +$77 +9%
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? May 27 $40 +$3 +8%
Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200? May 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk go on Joe Rogan before June 30? May 26 $40 +$4 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $500 −$56 -11%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? May 25 $150 +$41 +27%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 25 $150 −$19 -12%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? May 25 $305 +$62 +20%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $100 −$19 -19%
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by June 30? May 24 $100 −$55 -55%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 24 $100 +$44 +44%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $102 +$105 +103%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? May 23 $152 −$5 -3%
Major US official out by May 31? May 22 $50 −$23 -47%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $40 +$13 +34%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? May 19 $50 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 18 $100 +$12 +12%
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31? May 17 $120 +$64 +53%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $123 +$113 +92%
Will United Kingdom come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $126 −$125 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $100 +$35 +35%
Will Tyler1 shave his head by June 1, 2026? May 16 $40 +$5 +14%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31? May 16 $103 +$88 +85%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 14 $52 $0 +0%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by June 30, 2026? May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 14 $100 +$19 +19%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? May 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 46% −$499
other 24% −$642
politics 16% +$846
tech 10% +$230
culture 1% −$120
sports 1% +$106
finance 0% +$21
economics 0% −$17
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $99 2h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 2h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 2h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $120 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $169 5h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 5h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 5h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 5h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 5h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $118 5h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 6h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 6h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 6h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 6h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 6h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 6h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +8.1% -2.2% 75% 42% +2.3%
≤30d 51 -5.1% -14.2% 63% 33% -5.5%
≤90d 169 -14.4% -22.6% 50% 32% -10.0%
all 169 -14.4% -22.6% 50% 32% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 32% -10.0%
10% -30.0% 21% -18.7%
15% -36.7% 13% -26.5%
20% -42.9% 9% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $840.13 · official $840.13 (match) · 660 history records