Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:54:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x9523…7250
world · 50 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$15 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$15 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses19 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage521d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 1 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $79 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $18 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $83 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $95 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $61 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $24 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $115 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $228 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $4 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $6 −$1 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $46 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $41 −$4 -9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $223 −$2 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $223 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 11 $224 $0 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $223 +$1 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Raymond Burke be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 25 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on February Feb 25 $3 $0 +5%
Will "Conclave" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars? Feb 23 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Inter Milan beat Juventus? Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Jackson State vs. Bethune-Cookman Feb 17 $3 $0 -12%
UMBC vs. Bryant Feb 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Seattle vs. Abilene Christian Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Tennessee Tech vs. Little Rock Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Idaho State vs. Montana Feb 14 $7 +$3 +52%
Will egg prices be greater than $5 for January? Feb 13 $1 −$1 -38%
UNC Asheville vs. USC Upstate Feb 13 $4 +$3 +79%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in January? Feb 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or higher on February 7? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Utah vs. Hurricanes Feb 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Feb 04 $8 $0 -1%
Will Puka Nacua score a touchdown? Feb 04 $8 +$4 +59%
Will Micheal Martin be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Jan 23 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the Bills beat the Broncos by 9 or more points? Jan 13 $2 +$2 +100%
Will the December 2024 temperature increase be between 1.20-1.24°C? Jan 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 88% −$5
other 9% −$3
sports 2% −$3
weather 0% −$3
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% +$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $2 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $1 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $42 8h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $43 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $16 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 19h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $35 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $35 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $43 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $43 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $38 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $40 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $43 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $43 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $40 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $40 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.9% -10.4% 18% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 23 -1.4% -10.8% 26% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 26 -1.2% -10.6% 27% 0% -9.8%
all 49 -10.6% -19.1% 39% 12% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 12% -10.2%
10% -26.9% 10% -18.8%
15% -33.9% 8% -26.6%
20% -40.4% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.56 · official $2.56 (match) · 153 history records