Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:29:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9525…b927 sports 248 markets active 3d ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$96 (-9%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%68W / 179L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$42
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$62
other 13% −$35
world 5% −$5
culture 1% −$1
politics 1% $0
finance 1% −$3
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -14.9% -23.0% 5% 5% -23.0%
≤30d 67 -12.5% -20.9% 19% 18% -20.8%
≤90d 247 -10.6% -19.1% 28% 24% -18.3%
all 247 -10.6% -19.1% 28% 24% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 24% -18.3%
10% -26.8% 21% -26.1%
15% -33.9% 20% -33.2%
20% -40.4% 15% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses68 / 179
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)247 / 248
History coverage86d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 247 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 -10%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $5 −$1 -20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -28%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$1 -29%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -36%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -24%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $5 −$1 -24%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -15%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -11%
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $5 −$2 -45%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $5 −$1 -19%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $5 $0 -9%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $5 +$3 +64%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$2 -34%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 08 $5 −$2 -40%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 -5%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $5 −$1 -28%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 08 $5 −$1 -25%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -19%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 07 $5 +$1 +13%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $5 +$2 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -30%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $5 −$2 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5 $0 -5%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -19%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -91%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 07 $5 −$1 -22%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $5 −$2 -31%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $5 +$3 +69%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $5 −$3 -67%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 07 $5 −$4 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY No 48¢ $4 3d
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY No 48¢ $1 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $5 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Chicago Cubs 39¢ $4 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 21¢ $4 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 47¢ $5 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 58¢ $4 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 28¢ $5 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 80¢ $5 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 38¢ $4 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 33¢ $4 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $5 5d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Philadelphia Phillies 27¢ $4 5d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 32¢ $5 5d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 40¢ $5 5d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 5d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 78¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 78¢ $5 5d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 43¢ $4 5d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 69¢ $5 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $5 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 92¢ $7 6d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.99 · official $4.99 (match) · 482 history records