Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:37:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9528…351f crypto 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$50 (-2%) realized −$49 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR72%break-even
Win rate72%100W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day111.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +72%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 +6.4% -3.7% 72% 72% -15.8%
≤30d 138 +6.4% -3.7% 72% 72% -15.8%
≤90d 138 +6.4% -3.7% 72% 72% -15.8%
all 138 +6.4% -3.7% 72% 72% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 72% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 70% -23.8%
15% -21.3% 69% -31.2%
20% -29.1% 7% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$17 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses100 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day111.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 64¢ 62¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $49 +$23 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $19 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $39 +$17 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$21 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $47 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $50 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $50 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $49 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $23 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $17 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $50 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $21 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $29 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $34 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $50 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.62 · official $44.62 (match) · 311 history records