Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:18:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

95 0x952c…836f other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$6 (-10%) realized −$17 · open +$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-14.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-5.2%	-14.2%	50%	50%	-73.9%
≤30d	2	-5.2%	-14.2%	50%	50%	-73.9%
≤90d	2	-5.2%	-14.2%	50%	50%	-73.9%
all	2	-5.2%	-14.2%	50%	50%	-73.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.2%	50%	-73.9%
10%	-22.4%	50%	-76.4%
15%	-29.9%	50%	-78.7%
20%	-36.8%	50%	-80.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -71% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.16 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$62

Realized−$17

Unrealized+$11

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)2 / 4

History coverage4d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	70¢	88¢	$46	$58	+$12 (+26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	10¢	$5	$4	−$1 (-19%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 22	$6	−$6	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 22	$1	+$1	+90%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	70¢	$47	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$6	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$1	4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.50 · official $62.50 (match) · 5 history records