Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x952c…be27 other 128 markets active 3h ago coverage 115d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$15,906 (+4%) realized +$15,906 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%68W / 526L
Whale WR11%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,056per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 115d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$65,964
sports 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 477 -82.5% -84.2% 3% 3% -89.6%
≤30d 487 -81.5% -83.2% 3% 3% -89.3%
≤90d 529 -59.5% -63.3% 6% 5% -79.2%
all 594 -24.6% -31.8% 11% 9% -68.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.8% 9% -68.9%
10% -38.3% 9% -71.8%
15% ← realistic here -44.3% 8% -74.6%
20% -49.8% 7% -77.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 11% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +24% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,777 vs −$880 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15,906
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses68 / 526
Whale WR (big bets)11%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)594 / 128
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$3,056
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 594 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 29 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 29 $349 −$349 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 29 $23 −$48 -206%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? Jun 29 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Jun 29 $318 −$318 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026? Jun 29 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 29 $379 −$379 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 29 $536 −$536 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 29 $323 −$323 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 29 $387 −$387 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026 Jun 29 $629 −$629 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 29 $597 −$597 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 29 $317 −$317 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 740+ tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026? Jun 29 $332 −$332 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 29 $243 −$205 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025? Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Jun 29 $690 −$655 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 29 $317 −$317 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jun 29 $242 −$242 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 29 $536 −$536 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Jun 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 29 $241 −$241 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 29 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Jun 29 $1,252 −$1,252 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026? Jun 29 $317 −$317 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 29 $403 −$586 -145%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026? Jun 29 $354 −$354 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Jun 29 $517 −$517 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 29 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Jun 29 $318 −$318 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jun 29 $241 −$241 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 29 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Jun 29 $455 −$455 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 720-739 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Jun 29 $354 −$354 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 29 $267 −$316 -118%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 29 $4,785 −$4,785 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Jun 29 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Jun 29 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 600-619 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jun 29 $274 −$313 -114%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jun 29 $317 −$317 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $172 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 5d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $132 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 6d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $101 6d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $101 6d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $100 7d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 8d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 9d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $77 9d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $13 14d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 10¢ $10 14d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $3 14d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $0 14d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $0 14d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $2 14d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 14d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 14d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 14d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 14d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $4 15d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 15d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 15d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $1 15d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $0 15d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 16d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 1¢ $0 16d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $0 16d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records