Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
95 0x952d…ab8a crypto 418 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 19d only
✗ bot/MM pace (164 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,511 (+9%) realized +$1,675 · open −$164
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate53%207W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day163.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$861now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$133
7 days+$702
14 days+$800
30 days+$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$806
other 8% +$489
sports 7% +$823
world 5% −$272
weather 2% −$56
culture 2% +$52
finance 1% +$2
economics 0% +$1
tech 0% −$2
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (164 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 +0.3% -9.2% 52% 44% +0.3%
≤30d 393 +2.3% -7.4% 53% 46% -7.4%
≤90d 393 +2.3% -7.4% 53% 46% -7.4%
all 393 +2.3% -7.4% 53% 46% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover163.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 46% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 40% -16.2%
15% -24.4% 33% -24.3%
20% -31.8% 26% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$32 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$861
Realized+$1,675
Unrealized−$164
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses207 / 186
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions25
Markets (closed)393 / 418
History coverage19d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day163.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $299 $351 +$52 (+17%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $131 $130 −$1 (-1%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 78¢ 84¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 79¢ 15¢ $251 $49 −$202 (-80%)
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $43 $39 −$4 (-9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 19¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 7¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 70¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+8%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 81¢ 94¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+16%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 69¢ 71¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Down 49¢ 46¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 82¢ 92¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? No 82¢ 90¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+92%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 69¢ 81¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 83¢ 97¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Down 54¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Yes 69¢ 36¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 36¢ 6¢ $11 $2 −$10 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $119 +$12 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $178 +$249 +140%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +65%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +103%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $300 +$7 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $139 +$164 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $62 −$27 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $41 −$5 -11%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $169 −$169 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $88 −$6 -7%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $61 +$68 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $151 +$260 +172%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $35 +$51 +146%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $159 +$180 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 -1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $305 −$305 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $36 +$29 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $35 −$17 -49%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $123 +$535 +435%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $165 +$235 +142%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $42 +$54 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $56 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Jun 13 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $29 −$14 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $60 +$55 +91%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? BUY Yes 88¢ $40 7m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $20 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $30 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 100¢ $0 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 100¢ $0 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 7h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $32 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $62 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $4 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $4 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 91¢ $113 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 91¢ $6 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $8 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $6 7h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $6 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $861.24 · official $861.25 (match) · 3500 history records