Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:54:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9532…807e crypto 153 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%64W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day41.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$65
14 days−$39
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +5.6% -4.5% 40% 39% -3.8%
≤30d 153 -2.2% -11.5% 42% 41% -11.4%
≤90d 153 -2.2% -11.5% 42% 41% -11.4%
all 153 -2.2% -11.5% 42% 41% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 41% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 39% -19.9%
15% -27.7% 34% -27.6%
20% -34.8% 25% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses64 / 89
Open positions0
Markets (closed)153 / 153
History coverage10d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 153 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$20 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$6 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$7 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$14 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$19 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$7 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$16 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$9 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$6 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$9 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$6 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$16 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$5 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$6 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$6 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$8 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$8 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$33 +223%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$6 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$11 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$16 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$5 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$5 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $9 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $7 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $9 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 454 history records