Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9532…f57e other 327 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,062 (+1%) realized +$1,023 · open +$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate83%269W / 57L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$471now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$231
7 days+$191
14 days+$191
30 days+$191
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$1,622
weather 6% −$685
sports 4% +$156
crypto 0% +$5
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -7.5% -16.3% 84% 37% -5.4%
≤30d 19 -7.5% -16.3% 84% 37% -5.4%
≤90d 89 -2.4% -11.7% 82% 29% -6.2%
all 326 -4.2% -13.3% 83% 24% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 24% -8.5%
10% -21.6% 9% -17.2%
15% -29.2% 3% -25.2%
20% -36.1% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$85 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$471
Realized+$1,023
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses269 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)326 / 327
History coverage157d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 326 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 87¢ 95¢ $432 $471 +$39 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $218 +$12 +6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $992 +$40 +4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $386 +$13 +3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $91 +$9 +10%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $200 +$23 +12%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $350 +$50 +14%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $475 +$25 +5%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $134 +$23 +17%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $564 +$21 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $166 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $82 +$18 +22%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $113 +$25 +22%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $85 +$15 +18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 08 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $232 +$68 +29%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $213 +$8 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 04 $163 +$37 +23%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $663 +$79 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $1,363 +$115 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $578 −$575 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $767 +$116 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $161 −$84 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $274 +$40 +14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $246 +$54 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $80 −$4 -5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $592 +$194 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $115 +$11 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $1,137 +$162 +14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $1,018 +$89 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $284 +$16 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 18 $265 +$13 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $1,425 +$38 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 17 $253 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 16 $1,145 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $384 +$15 +4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $765 +$93 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $263 −$12 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $170 −$38 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $1,234 −$578 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $120 −$62 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $286 +$125 +44%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Apr 13 $379 +$21 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $6 50m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $5 50m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $86 50m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $85 50m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 98¢ $1 50m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 98¢ $119 50m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 98¢ $28 50m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 98¢ $332 50m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 98¢ $10 50m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $97 51m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $43 51m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 88¢ $65 52m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 88¢ $8 52m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 88¢ $15 52m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 92¢ $48 54m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 92¢ $23 54m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 92¢ $2 54m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 92¢ $8 54m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 92¢ $11 55m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $84 56m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 94¢ $15 59m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 91¢ $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 91¢ $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 91¢ $6 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 91¢ $10 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 91¢ $3 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 91¢ $9 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 91¢ $63 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $75 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $229 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $470.99 · official $470.99 (match) · 2005 history records