Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:29:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9532…e35d other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$22 (-2%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate32%15W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$10
other 36% −$14
finance 8% +$3
politics 7% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 12 -2.8% -12.1% 42% 8% -10.9%
≤90d 15 -2.2% -11.6% 33% 7% -10.7%
all 47 -3.4% -12.6% 32% 4% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 4% -11.3%
10% -21.0% 0% -19.8%
15% -28.6% 0% -27.6%
20% -35.6% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses15 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage270d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $18 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $38 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $94 +$3 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $50 −$15 -31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $44 +$7 +15%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $48 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $95 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $6 −$1 -20%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 20 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 14 $34 +$3 +9%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $42 −$15 -36%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $82 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 25 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $26 +$3 +12%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Nov 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Nov 03 $10 $0 +3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 26 $10 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Oct 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 14 $8 $0 +6%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 30 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Sep 27 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 25 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 23 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $37 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $7 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $41 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $41 32h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $9 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $4 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $18 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $28 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $23 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $27 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $14 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 60¢ $32 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 60¢ $3 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $50 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 62¢ $16 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 62¢ $35 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 54¢ $4 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.98 · official $36.98 (match) · 194 history records