trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 43% | 0% | -9.2% |
| ≤30d | 11 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 36% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 11 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 36% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 24 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 54% | 0% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.1% | 0% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -17.8% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -33.0% | 0% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 39¢ | 40¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 92¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+8%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 21 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | Jun 21 | $42 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | Jun 20 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 20 | $76 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Jun 18 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $41 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 15 | $73 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 11 | $8 | $0 | +4% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 10 | $4 | $0 | -3% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? | Jun 28 | $9 | +$1 | +5% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| US military action against Iran before April? | Mar 28 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 25 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 23 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 21 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14? | Mar 15 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 12 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 11 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 60-61°F on March 10? | Mar 10 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 10 | $13 | $0 | +0% |