Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:43:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9538…edb2 other 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$249 (+9%) realized +$285 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%37W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$173
14 days+$135
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$130
sports 30% +$200
crypto 11% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +6.9% -3.3% 52% 48% -0.9%
≤30d 57 -6.1% -15.1% 46% 42% -4.7%
≤90d 57 -6.1% -15.1% 46% 42% -4.7%
all 79 -6.7% -15.6% 47% 42% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 42% -8.2%
10% -23.6% 25% -16.9%
15% -31.0% 13% -25.0%
20% -37.8% 11% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$16 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized+$285
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses37 / 42
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage128d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 34¢ $90 $97 +$7 (+8%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 38¢ $90 $47 −$43 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $158 −$75 -48%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $104 −$102 -98%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $135 +$268 +199%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $42 −$42 -99%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $27 +$81 +303%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $143 +$18 +12%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $26 −$14 -56%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $88 −$28 -32%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $41 +$82 +198%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $94 +$49 +52%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $17 −$7 -39%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $16 +$4 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $16 +$5 +29%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $28 −$22 -78%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $32 −$32 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $83 +$15 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $163 +$19 +11%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $28 −$14 -50%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $199 −$7 -4%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $150 +$14 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $127 +$30 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $8 +$5 +65%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 +$5 +68%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$3 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 +$1 +22%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $8 −$1 -12%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $7 $0 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 $0 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 −$8 -21%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -75%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 +$2 +26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +17%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $28 −$27 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$4 -26%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$17 +152%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$2 -25%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$7 -55%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $92 31m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $91 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 24¢ $25 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 39¢ $42 3h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $104 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 27¢ $58 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 52¢ $117 4h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 75¢ $42 41h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $66 41h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $69 42h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $107 44h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $148 44h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 79¢ $117 44h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 44h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 45h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 29¢ $13 46h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 46h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $27 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 50¢ $36 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 45¢ $23 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 79¢ $58 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $29 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $38 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 85¢ $25 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $17 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.83 · official $143.85 (match) · 322 history records