Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:11:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
95 0x953d…b279 other 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$100 (+7%) realized −$36 · open +$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate27%4W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$40
14 days+$48
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$163
other 29% −$26
tech 10% +$1
economics 2% +$6
sports 1% −$1
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-52.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +10.2% -0.3% 100% 50% -2.7%
≤30d 9 -12.8% -21.1% 44% 22% -5.7%
≤90d 15 -47.7% -52.7% 27% 13% -9.1%
all 15 -47.7% -52.7% 27% 13% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.7% 13% -9.1%
10% -57.2% 7% -17.8%
15% -61.3% 7% -25.7%
20% -65.1% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$5 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$800
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$136
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses4 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions30
Markets (closed)15 / 45
History coverage34d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 59¢ $480 $624 +$144 (+30%)
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 72¢ 68¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $36 $30 −$6 (-16%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 25¢ $3 $14 +$11 (+383%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 76¢ 55¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 36¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 13¢ 40¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+204%)
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 9¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+108%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 39¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 29¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? Yes 38¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-46%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-56%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will annual inflation be 4.4% in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 23 $135 +$21 +16%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $400 +$19 +5%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $3 +$8 +271%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $143 −$16 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $153 +$6 +4%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in May? May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? May 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY Yes 4¢ $1 58m
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 34¢ $37 1h
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $156 1h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will annual inflation be 4.4% in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $400 3d
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 3d
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $419 3d
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 9d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $80 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $400 10d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY No 3¢ $1 12d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 8¢ $1 18d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 8¢ $1 18d
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 7¢ $1 18d
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 4¢ $1 18d
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 4¢ $1 18d
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 4¢ $1 18d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 3¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $799.89 · official $794.59 (match) · 53 history records