Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x953e…79ff sports 555 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 218d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$873 (-2%) realized −$879 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%285W / 265L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$579est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$193now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$213
7 days−$147
14 days−$147
30 days+$769
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$1,189
world 1% +$119
other 1% +$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -24.4% -31.6% 40% 40% -12.8%
≤30d 172 +5.7% -4.4% 53% 53% -3.6%
≤90d 521 +1.0% -8.6% 51% 50% -10.3%
all 550 +4.6% -5.4% 52% 51% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 51% -12.1%
10% -14.4% 49% -20.5%
15% -22.7% 45% -28.2%
20% -30.3% 39% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$60 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$193
Realized−$879
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses285 / 265
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$579
Open positions5
Markets (closed)550 / 555
History coverage218d ⚠
Avg bet$75
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 550 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 66¢ $50 $68 +$18 (+36%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Power Rangers 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Over 59¢ 57¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 47¢ 36¢ $24 $18 −$6 (-23%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $13 $8 −$4 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $51 −$2 -3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $106 +$94 +89%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $117 −$116 -99%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $180 +$114 +64%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $105 +$85 +82%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 +$21 +102%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $30 +$23 +74%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 +$97 +48%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $61 +$113 +185%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $162 +$108 +67%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $122 −$122 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $125 −$125 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $162 −$162 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $283 +$217 +77%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $42 +$58 +140%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $90 −$41 -46%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $92 −$92 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $98 +$49 +50%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $124 +$60 +48%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $13 +$7 +55%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $5 +$5 +98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $146 +$95 +65%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $366 +$143 +39%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $18 +$31 +168%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs Entropy (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Two Move (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Clo Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Dota 2: F9 Team vs Flame Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: BALU vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Clo Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $28 −$22 -79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 71¢ $20 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $30 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 51¢ $51 5h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $200 5h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 50¢ $48 7h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 50¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 58¢ $117 9h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Power Rangers 51¢ $52 9h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 98¢ $130 9h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 98¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl SELL Nuclear TigeRES 98¢ $161 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 47¢ $24 9h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 40¢ $8 9h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 60¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 61¢ $0 9h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 60¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 61¢ $6 9h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 62¢ $6 9h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $6 9h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 63¢ $0 9h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 64¢ $6 9h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 66¢ $7 9h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 70¢ $7 9h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 72¢ $7 9h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.36 · official $193.78 (match) · 3500 history records