Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

95 0x953e…0aca other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$75 (+25%) realized +$73 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%8W / 10L

Drawdown7%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit30%portable

Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)+10.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+22.6%	+10.9%	44%	44%	+17.9%
≤30d	18	+22.6%	+10.9%	44%	44%	+17.9%
≤90d	18	+22.6%	+10.9%	44%	44%	+17.9%
all	18	+22.6%	+10.9%	44%	44%	+17.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+10.9%	44%	+17.9%
10%	+0.3%	39%	+6.6%
15%	-9.4%	33%	-3.7%
20%	-18.3%	22%	-13.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 55% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +23% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +24% → late +21% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$1 · ×9.14 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.31 per $1 lost it wins $7.31

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$70

Realized+$73

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses8 / 10

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions5

Markets (closed)18 / 23

History coverage4d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown7%

Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	19¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	15¢	15¢	$18	$19	+$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	5¢	$10	$12	+$2 (+21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$99	+$11	+11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$19	+$13	+67%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$14	+$5	+32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$9	+$5	+54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$6	+$3	+50%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 23	$5	$0	-8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 23	$5	$0	-7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 23	$5	$0	-5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 23	$10	$0	-5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$28	+$32	+114%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 21	$2	−$1	-52%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$2	+$8	+388%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$1	$0	-15%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$2	$0	-14%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$2	−$2	-98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$3	−$1	-43%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$13	+$5	+39%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	92¢	$42	1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$38	2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	80¢	$38	2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	61¢	$30	2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	60¢	$30	2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	62¢	$31	2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	97¢	$31	2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$19	4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$19	4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$14	7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$14	24h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$9	27h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	100¢	$9	27h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$9	36h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	36h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$6	36h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$10	36h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	36h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	36h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	36h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$10	36h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	24¢	$5	2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	33¢	$5	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	50¢	$5	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	51¢	$10	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	34¢	$5	2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	95¢	$60	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.89 · official $69.89 (match) · 49 history records