Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:02:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x953e…2e34 other 144 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,104 (+1%) realized +$1,104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate18%26W / 117L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$1,091per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$832now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$14
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$78
other 38% +$4
sports 11% +$267
culture 3% −$3
crypto 2% +$4
economics 2% −$3
world 2% +$881
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 70 +1.2% -8.5% 9% 1% -9.0%
all 143 -4.5% -13.6% 18% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 10% -8.9%
10% -21.9% 9% -17.6%
15% -29.4% 7% -25.6%
20% -36.4% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,447) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$13 · ×7.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$832
Realized+$1,104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses26 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage135d
Avg bet$1,091
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $832 $832 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $1,843 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,462 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $564 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $837 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4,306 −$5 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $1,642 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,621 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,644 −$3 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,617 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,361 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,640 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $4,620 −$6 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,147 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 03 $428 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 03 $762 +$1 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,401 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $556 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $807 +$723 +90%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $1,176 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,109 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $2,459 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $4,293 −$5 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,058 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 05 $1,143 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $2,759 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $2,080 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? May 02 $702 +$2 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $373 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $422 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,108 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,144 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $847 1h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $848 4h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $857 5h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $858 8h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $420 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $421 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $562 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $563 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $563 8d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $564 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $836 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $837 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $832 11d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $896 11d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $897 11d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $721 13d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $722 13d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,640 14d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,642 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,619 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,621 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,641 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,644 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,614 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,617 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,248 20d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,249 20d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,651 20d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,654 20d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,359 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $831.58 · official $831.58 (match) · 456 history records