Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:24:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

95
0x9541…33b5
weather · 897 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,154 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$919 · open −$236
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$412
Realized−$919
Unrealized−$236
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses652 / 222
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions23
Markets (closed)874 / 897
History coverage26d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day85.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 23 History 874 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$213
14 days−$652
30 days−$919
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? No 94¢ 95¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? No 91¢ 92¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? No 92¢ 93¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? No 97¢ 96¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? No 97¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? No 94¢ 96¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? No 90¢ 91¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? No 96¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? No 98¢ 97¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? No 94¢ 82¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? No 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? No 77¢ 56¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Yes 45¢ 43¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? No 86¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
MLB: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to draw more walks? Judge 21¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 72¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Trump say "KAG" or "Keep America Great" in June? Yes 93¢ 43¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-54%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $231 $0 −$231 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 12 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $220 +$4 +2%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -42%
Will Trump say "Muscle" in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -41%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $95 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $95 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $195 +$35 +18%
Will Trump say "Big League" or "Bigly" in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $113 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $188 −$188 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $62 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$5 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $91 +$11 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$9 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $38 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 −$20 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $55 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $61 +$8 +13%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $80 +$8 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $211 +$15 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $102 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 11 $40 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $100 +$1 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 56% −$355
crypto 33% −$438
sports 8% −$254
other 1% −$71
politics 1% −$51
world 1% +$11
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% +$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $5 14m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 14m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $30 21m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $20 21m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 22m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 95¢ $20 22m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $20 22m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $20 22m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $20 22m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 22m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $10 23m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $20 23m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 24m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 99¢ $122 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 84¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 276 -5.0% -14.0% 76% 33% -11.5%
≤30d 874 -5.5% -14.5% 75% 40% -13.4%
≤90d 874 -5.5% -14.5% 75% 40% -13.4%
all 874 -5.5% -14.5% 75% 40% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover85.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 40% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 20% -21.7%
15% -30.1% 11% -29.3%
20% -37.0% 7% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $412.02 · official $412.02 (match) · 2805 history records