Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
95 0x9541…7f67 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,129 (+17%) realized +$1,228 · open −$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%22W / 12L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$113
14 days+$109
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$1,268
other 22% +$56
sports 11% −$9
crypto 2% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +110.8% +90.7% 100% 100% +90.7%
≤30d 9 +31.5% +19.0% 67% 67% +3.1%
≤90d 16 +38.8% +25.6% 75% 75% +17.2%
all 34 +19.5% +8.2% 65% 65% +9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 65% +9.3%
10% -2.2% 65% -1.2%
15% -11.6% 59% -10.7%
20% -20.3% 53% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$72 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.52 per $1 lost it wins $2.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$1,228
Unrealized−$99
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses22 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 38
History coverage145d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Alexander Zverev 63¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$113 +111%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $51 +$79 +156%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-31? Jun 12 $50 +$23 +46%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-31? Jun 12 $51 +$31 +62%
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-05-31? Jun 12 $51 +$63 +124%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $25 +$22 +86%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-04-19? Apr 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-04-19? Apr 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-04-17? Apr 18 $50 +$34 +68%
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-04-18? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $45 +$42 +92%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $50 +$48 +97%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-03-15? Mar 16 $50 +$35 +70%
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-03-08? Mar 09 $25 +$36 +144%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 09 $25 +$44 +178%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $25 −$25 -100%
FC Andorra vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 1.5 Mar 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $60 +$35 +59%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $70 +$49 +71%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28? Feb 28 $75 +$46 +61%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026? Feb 28 $4,000 +$1,289 +32%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $42 +$32 +75%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Feb 25 $250 −$21 -8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-28? Feb 24 $68 +$17 +25%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic Jan 28 $269 +$99 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 63¢ $101 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 47¢ $102 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 54¢ $101 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY 49¢ $25 7d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 38¢ $51 7d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 60¢ $101 12d
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 19d
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 19d
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 19d
Will AC Monza win on 2026-05-29? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 21d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 26d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 27d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 30d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 30d
Will SD Eibar win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 63d
Will Real Sporting de Gijón win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 63d
Will Real Zaragoza win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 63d
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-04-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $50 64d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 52¢ $45 81d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 81d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-03-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $50 96d
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 25¢ $25 103d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 36¢ $25 104d
Will FC Andorra win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 104d
FC Andorra vs. Real Sporting de Gijón: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $100 104d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 51¢ $50 104d
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 104d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-01? BUY Yes 63¢ $60 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.52 · official $50.52 (match) · 61 history records