Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:55:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
95 0x9544…826e sports 538 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$647 (+10%) realized +$671 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate44%222W / 280L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$274
7 days+$678
14 days+$798
30 days+$760
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$653
other 29% +$175
crypto 7% −$51
world 5% −$18
politics 2% −$42
weather 1% +$1
culture 0% −$14
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -2.9% -12.1% 53% 52% +15.7%
≤30d 257 -6.0% -14.9% 48% 47% +11.0%
≤90d 502 -5.0% -14.1% 44% 35% +1.1%
all 502 -5.0% -14.1% 44% 35% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 35% +1.1%
10% -22.3% 30% -8.6%
15% -29.8% 26% -17.4%
20% -36.7% 21% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized+$671
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses222 / 280
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions30
Markets (closed)502 / 538
History coverage84d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 502 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 60¢ 60¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28? No 54¢ 99¢ $6 $12 +$5 (+83%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 80¢ 43¢ $16 $9 −$7 (-47%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 82¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Gabriela Ruse 33¢ 38¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 15¢ $5 $7 +$3 (+53%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 60¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 81¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $3 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 26? No 55¢ 63¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 65¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Spread: France (-1.5) France 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+69%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? No 77¢ 32¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-58%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? No 75¢ 28¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka Jun 26 $15 +$5 +31%
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $51 −$51 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $4 +$6 +158%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $6 +$14 +247%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $14 +$6 +40%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $35 +$15 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $7 +$3 +47%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $7 +$13 +172%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Jun 25 $15 −$15 -100%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Martin Krumich Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katarzyna Kawa vs Kayla Day Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Teodora Kostovic vs Lin Zhu Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Oliver Tarvet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson Jun 25 $7 +$13 +172%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova Jun 25 $19 +$10 +52%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $3 +$2 +48%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 25 $17 +$3 +16%
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $14 +$6 +46%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $8 +$12 +140%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 25 $14 +$6 +48%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Oceane Dodin vs Mananchaya Sawangkaew Jun 25 $14 +$5 +38%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $12 +$8 +65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 24? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $6 +$14 +250%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $10 +$10 +105%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $3 +$17 +474%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$49 +96%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $101 +$55 +55%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Bosnia and Herze Jun 24 $51 +$68 +133%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$40 +40%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $115 +$119 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $2 1m
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova BUY Gabriela Ruse 33¢ $7 43m
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $152 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on June 26? BUY No 55¢ $3 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Xinyu Wang vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 76¢ $15 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 26? BUY No 42¢ $2 11h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 38¢ $4 11h
Piracicaba: Nicolas Kicker vs Bruno Fernandez BUY Bruno Fernandez 41¢ $8 12h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 12h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 75¢ $15 12h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 15h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 71¢ $14 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 43¢ $22 18h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 36¢ $7 20h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 68¢ $3 21h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 67¢ $3 21h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme BUY Jeline Vandromme $1 22h
Bad Homburg Open: Karolina Muchova vs Clara Tauson BUY Karolina Muchova 36¢ $7 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tatjana Maria 67¢ $7 23h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 68¢ $14 23h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon BUY Alejandro Moro Canas $1 23h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson BUY Heather Watson 74¢ $15 23h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Duje Ajdukovic 70¢ $14 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tatjana Maria 64¢ $13 23h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Vilius Gaubas 34¢ $7 24h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 15¢ $51 24h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY 28¢ $51 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Teodora Kostovic vs Lin Zhu BUY Lin Zhu 40¢ $8 24h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Dusan Lajovic 51¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.00 · official $233.01 (match) · 1508 history records