Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:29:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9544…790d sports 704 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 149d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$385 (+1%) realized +$624 · open −$239
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%295W / 406L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$570est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$416
7 days+$284
14 days+$284
30 days+$468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$1,771
other 12% +$259
finance 2% −$1,345
politics 2% −$323
crypto 1% −$48
world 0% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -9.9% -18.5% 50% 50% +12.3%
≤30d 21 +16.0% +5.0% 62% 62% +8.5%
≤90d 209 +2.3% -7.4% 48% 45% -8.5%
all 701 -0.7% -10.1% 42% 41% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 41% -8.7%
10% -18.7% 41% -17.4%
15% -26.6% 40% -25.4%
20% -33.8% 38% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$72 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$447
Realized+$624
Unrealized−$239
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses295 / 406
Est. fees paid−$570
Open positions3
Markets (closed)701 / 704
History coverage149d ⚠
Avg bet$86
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 701 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 63¢ 62¢ $301 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $150 $149 −$2 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 53¢ $235 $0 −$235 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $150 −$150 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $160 +$285 +178%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $117 +$66 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 +$155 +76%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $180 +$120 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $41 +$27 +67%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $81 +$29 +36%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 06 $31 +$36 +119%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 04 $20 +$23 +112%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 04 $41 +$32 +78%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5 May 27 $48 +$55 +114%
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5 May 27 $65 +$72 +109%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5 May 25 $161 −$161 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 25 $233 −$233 -100%
Villarreal CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 25 $231 +$120 +52%
Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to Score May 23 $338 +$240 +71%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 May 19 $79 +$61 +76%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 18 $0 $0 -100%
Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 May 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score May 18 $58 −$58 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5 May 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $88 −$88 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Torino FC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $150 −$150 -100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $158 −$158 -100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5 May 18 $208 −$208 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score May 18 $211 −$211 -100%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5 May 18 $212 −$212 -100%
SV Werder Bremen vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5 May 18 $5 +$11 +223%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5 May 18 $25 +$17 +67%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $150 +$106 +71%
Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $189 +$126 +67%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: Both Teams to Score May 18 $234 +$202 +86%
Como 1907 vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Both Teams to Score May 18 $308 +$233 +75%
AS Roma vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 May 18 $288 +$300 +104%
Lille OSC vs. AJ Auxerre: O/U 2.5 May 18 $288 +$367 +127%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5 May 18 $333 +$381 +114%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 3.5 May 18 $313 +$421 +135%
FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5 May 17 $260 −$5 -2%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5 May 15 $6 $0 +8%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5 May 14 $148 −$12 -8%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5 May 14 $19 −$19 -100%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 14 $194 −$194 -100%
Getafe CF vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5 May 14 $215 −$215 -100%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5 May 14 $10 +$23 +223%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5 May 14 $151 +$119 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $82 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $304 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $153 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $80 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $8 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $3 39h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $17 39h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $3 39h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $155 39h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $48 44h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $117 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $180 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $41 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $81 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $11 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $25 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $14 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $150 4d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $56 4d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $46 10d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5 BUY Yes 45¢ $31 15d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY No 56¢ $5 17d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY No 56¢ $11 17d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 16.5 BUY Yes 46¢ $20 17d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY No 55¢ $25 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $447.14 · official $447.14 (match) · 3500 history records