Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:21:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9547…1bf5 crypto 334 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$895 (-20%) realized −$896 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%163W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$467
14 days−$467
30 days−$450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 48% −$457
crypto 43% −$122
sports 5% −$199
other 4% −$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 236 -1.8% -11.1% 58% 55% -28.3%
≤30d 239 -1.2% -10.7% 58% 54% -27.3%
≤90d 333 -12.9% -21.2% 49% 45% -29.2%
all 333 -12.9% -21.2% 49% 45% -29.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 45% -29.2%
10% -28.7% 24% -35.9%
15% -35.6% 23% -42.1%
20% -41.9% 22% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$896
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses163 / 170
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)333 / 334
History coverage76d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $19 +$12 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 24 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$38 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.58 · official $40.57 · 988 history records