Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:24:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9547…9c20 crypto 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,644 (-32%) realized −$2,621 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%45W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days−$271
14 days−$2,686
30 days−$2,787
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,810
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -8.7% -17.4% 41% 41% -20.9%
≤30d 136 -25.8% -32.9% 33% 32% -44.3%
≤90d 136 -25.8% -32.9% 33% 32% -44.3%
all 136 -25.8% -32.9% 33% 32% -44.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.9% 32% -44.3%
10% ← realistic here -39.3% 31% -49.6%
15% -45.2% 29% -54.5%
20% -50.5% 27% -59.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$53 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$2,621
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses45 / 91
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage15d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 44¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$13 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $44 −$23 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $57 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $32 +$34 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$27 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$28 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $36 +$28 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $66 −$63 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$22 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$10 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $74 −$39 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $42 +$47 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $67 −$29 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $53 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $45 +$54 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$15 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$42 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $36 +$18 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$17 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$32 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$34 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $71 −$67 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $94 +$180 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $85 −$70 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET Jun 18 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $89 −$51 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $53 +$99 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $44 +$110 +247%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $85 −$80 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$45 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $85 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$48 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $138 −$131 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $61 +$60 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$24 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$28 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $32 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.60 · official $17.26 · 764 history records