Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:59:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5

score

95 0x9548…78d6 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$5,106 (+31%) realized +$5,997 · open −$891

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate62%15W / 9L

Whale WR67%big bets

Drawdown46%max

Avg bet$641per market

Trades / day10.7pace

Fees−$246est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+13.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	+25.5%	+13.5%	62%	62%	+13.1%
≤30d	24	+25.5%	+13.5%	62%	62%	+13.1%
≤90d	24	+25.5%	+13.5%	62%	62%	+13.1%
all	24	+25.5%	+13.5%	62%	62%	+13.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.7 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+13.5%	62%	+13.1%
10% ← realistic here	+2.7%	62%	+2.2%
15%	-7.3%	58%	-7.6%
20%	-16.3%	54%	-16.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +25% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,003) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +50% → late +1% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$660 vs −$664 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$1

Realized+$5,997

Unrealized−$891

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses15 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)67%

Est. fees paid−$246

Open positions2

Markets (closed)24 / 26

History coverage5d

Avg bet$641

Trades / day10.7

Drawdown46%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner	UNO MILLE	49¢	0¢	$452	$0	−$451 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Playoffs	UNO MILLE	64¢	0¢	$440	$0	−$440 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South Am	Jun 28	$901	−$884	-98%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World	Jun 28	$1,000	−$985	-98%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner	Jun 28	$1,468	−$1,448	-99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Liquid vs FaZe Clan (BO1) - South America Leag	Jun 28	$572	+$906	+158%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner	Jun 28	$1,011	+$552	+55%
Map Handicap: FX (-1.5) vs UNO MILLE (+1.5)	Jun 28	$2	−$2	-98%
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner	Jun 28	$760	−$750	-99%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs OpTic Texas (BO7) - Call of Duty	Jun 28	$1,003	+$1,269	+126%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner	Jun 28	$1,352	−$1,330	-98%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty L	Jun 28	$873	+$496	+57%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner	Jun 28	$1,417	+$927	+66%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed	Jun 28	$775	+$1,174	+152%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner	Jun 28	$898	+$860	+96%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo	Jun 27	$1,036	+$1,495	+144%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner	Jun 27	$359	+$677	+188%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner	Jun 26	$507	+$438	+86%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner	Jun 26	$406	+$393	+97%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner	Jun 26	$360	+$346	+96%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner	Jun 24	$296	−$294	-99%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group	Jun 24	$274	−$270	-99%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos	Jun 24	$260	+$111	+43%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire - Map 1 Winner	Jun 24	$211	+$247	+117%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner	Jun 24	$18	−$18	-98%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner	Jun 24	$2	+$1	+30%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio	BUY UNO MILLE	64¢	$445	2h
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner	BUY UNO MILLE	45¢	$22	2h
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner	BUY UNO MILLE	44¢	$27	2h
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner	BUY UNO MILLE	49¢	$410	2h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South Am	BUY MIBR Academy	37¢	$491	3h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South Am	BUY MIBR Academy	34¢	$410	3h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World	BUY largadosypelados	47¢	$439	4h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Thunderpick World	BUY largadosypelados	49¢	$562	4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner	BUY Acend	56¢	$993	4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 4 Winner	BUY Acend	51¢	$475	4h
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Liquid vs FaZe Clan (BO1) - South America Leag	SELL FaZe Clan	100¢	$1,478	5h
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Liquid vs FaZe Clan (BO1) - South America Leag	BUY FaZe Clan	38¢	$572	5h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner	SELL Inner Circle Esports	99¢	$1,563	5h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend - Map 3 Winner	BUY Inner Circle Esports	63¢	$1,011	6h
Map Handicap: FX (-1.5) vs UNO MILLE (+1.5)	BUY Fluxo	48¢	$2	7h
Counter-Strike: Fluxo vs UNO MILLE - Map 2 Winner	BUY Fluxo	56¢	$760	7h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs OpTic Texas (BO7) - Call of Duty	SELL OpTic Texas	99¢	$2,272	7h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs OpTic Texas (BO7) - Call of Duty	BUY OpTic Texas	43¢	$1,003	9h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner	BUY Nigma Galaxy	44¢	$1,352	10h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty L	SELL OpTic Texas	100¢	$1,368	10h
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Duty L	BUY OpTic Texas	63¢	$873	11h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner	SELL Sharks	100¢	$2,344	11h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner	BUY Sharks	60¢	$1,417	12h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed	SELL HULIGANI	100¢	$1,949	12h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed	BUY HULIGANI	39¢	$775	13h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner	SELL HULIGANI	100¢	$1,759	13h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner	BUY HULIGANI	50¢	$898	14h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo	SELL HULIGANI	100¢	$2,531	36h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo	BUY HULIGANI	40¢	$489	36h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo	BUY HULIGANI	41¢	$547	36h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.81 (match) · 49 history records