Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9548…1002 weather 224 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$82 (-1%) realized −$85 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate81%178W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$24
14 days+$56
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 72% −$98
crypto 13% +$58
world 8% +$112
sports 7% −$190
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +2.9% -6.9% 96% 12% -5.8%
≤30d 70 -0.0% -9.5% 90% 13% -8.4%
≤90d 165 +0.5% -9.1% 89% 22% -9.4%
all 219 -3.2% -12.5% 81% 29% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 29% -10.6%
10% -20.8% 10% -19.2%
15% -28.5% 5% -27.0%
20% -35.5% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$30 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses178 / 41
Open positions5
Markets (closed)219 / 224
History coverage170d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 26? No 85¢ 86¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 26? No 92¢ 100¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? No 93¢ 92¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 27? No 92¢ 92¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $28 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $43 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 24? Jun 24 $35 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $22 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $16 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $24 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? Jun 22 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 22 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $38 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $27 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $35 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 18? Jun 18 $27 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $19 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $35 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 5? Jun 15 $37 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 5? Jun 15 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 5? Jun 15 $30 +$5 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 −$7 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C or below on June 4? Jun 05 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 05 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? Jun 04 $24 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 3? Jun 04 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 3? Jun 04 $39 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 4? Jun 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 03 $30 −$15 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 02 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C or below on June 1? Jun 02 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 2? Jun 02 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 2? Jun 02 $28 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 27? BUY No 92¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 27? BUY No 93¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 84¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 97¢ $17 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C or below on June 26? BUY No 92¢ $35 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 86¢ $25 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 90¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 95¢ $18 47h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 96¢ $26 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 24? BUY No 93¢ $35 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 90¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 90¢ $22 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 81¢ $24 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $25 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $18 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $16 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 92¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $27 5d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $17 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 95¢ $20 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $35 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $38 6d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $27 7d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $25 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 96¢ $19 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.21 · official $153.21 (match) · 460 history records