Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
95 0x9549…fdb5 other 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 430d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$6 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%34W / 66L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$7
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% +$2
world 26% −$1
sports 19% +$1
politics 12% +$3
crypto 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.9% -10.4% 20% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 25 +0.8% -8.8% 28% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 32 +0.7% -8.9% 31% 3% -9.5%
all 100 +0.5% -9.1% 34% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.7% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses34 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage430d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 89¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $119 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $88 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $97 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $97 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $67 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $86 −$3 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $70 −$4 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $359 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $52 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $13 +$6 +46%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $153 +$3 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $97 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -17%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $47 $0 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $190 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $122 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $91 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $97 −$3 -3%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $147 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $576 +$2 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $651 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $575 +$1 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $574 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $575 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $575 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18? Aug 10 $9 +$1 +10%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 17 $2 $0 +6%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 17 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Jul 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Jul 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $97 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $20 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $39 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 32h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $88 32h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $69 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $97 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $97 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $97 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $6 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $16 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $34 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $17 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $83 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $86 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $32 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $35 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $39 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.63 · official $95.63 (match) · 348 history records