Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9549…d3cb sports 280 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$159 (-4%) realized −$159 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%167W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$38
14 days−$35
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$29
sports 46% −$51
other 6% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +62.1% +46.7% 100% 100% +46.7%
≤30d 11 -38.8% -44.7% 36% 36% -31.2%
≤90d 201 -4.4% -13.5% 62% 49% -12.7%
all 280 -3.7% -12.8% 60% 50% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 50% -13.0%
10% -21.2% 36% -21.3%
15% -28.8% 34% -28.9%
20% -35.8% 26% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses167 / 113
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)280 / 280
History coverage107d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 280 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $60 +$37 +62%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $22 +$9 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $52 +$8 +16%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -99%
Mensik vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 28 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 28 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +90%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 May 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 13 $36 −$16 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 13 $17 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 10 $18 +$2 +12%
Galatasaray SK vs. Antalyaspor: O/U 2.5 May 10 $25 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 08 $32 −$18 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 08 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 08 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 20 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 20 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 20 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 20 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Apr 17 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 16 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 16 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 16 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 16 $15 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 16 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 16 $15 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 16 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 14 $15 −$8 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 14 $12 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 14 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 14 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 14 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 14 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 14 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 14 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 14 $22 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 14 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 14 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 14 $34 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 14 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 14 $18 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $98 34m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $60 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $60 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $22 12d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $52 12d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 14d
Mensik vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Over 28¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 26d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 30d
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $0 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $9 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 856 history records