Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x954d…cd39 other 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,680 (+3%) realized +$2,572 · open +$108
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%73W / 99L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$492per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$293now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$213
7 days+$682
14 days+$599
30 days−$4,059
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$355
world 11% +$2,403
politics 3% +$152
sports 1% +$24
culture 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +17.2% +6.0% 49% 32% +15.5%
≤30d 64 -6.5% -15.4% 41% 28% -41.9%
≤90d 140 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 31% -14.8%
all 172 -4.8% -13.8% 42% 33% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.8% 33% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 27% -16.2%
15% -29.6% 23% -24.3%
20% -36.5% 19% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$600) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$402 vs −$275 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$293
Realized+$2,572
Unrealized+$108
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses73 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)172 / 178
History coverage106d
Avg bet$492
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 47¢ 96¢ $100 $205 +$105 (+105%)
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+17%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? No 100¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 8 and 10 million views on Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $112 +$247 +220%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $181 −$181 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $50 −$18 -36%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee Jun 20 $22 +$4 +19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $510 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$68 +67%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $27 +$30 +112%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $369 −$4 -1%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $10 +$17 +168%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $100 +$6 +6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $15 −$8 -50%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 55.5 million views on day Jun 19 $5 +$36 +790%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54.5 and 55 million views on day Jun 19 $61 +$11 +17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 19 $166 +$429 +258%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -26%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 54 and 54.5 million views on day Jun 18 $9 −$6 -72%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day Jun 18 $60 +$20 +34%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51.5 and 52 million views on day Jun 18 $36 −$20 -56%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 +$4 +7%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $95 +$3 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $98 +$2 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 Jun 16 $37 −$26 -69%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $75 +$99 +131%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $21 −$8 -38%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $43 −$23 -53%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 58 and 59 million views on day 5 Jun 14 $155 −$155 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 59 and 60 million views on day 5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
43 million or more views Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $30 +$5 +17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $66 −$63 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $41 +$116 +280%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $22 +$14 +66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$14 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $179 −$179 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57 and 58 million views on day 5 Jun 04 $59 +$21 +36%
between 41 and 43 million views Jun 02 $300 +$16 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 1h
Will USD be between 1.6M and 1.7M Iranian rials on June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 16h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 50¢ $3 16h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 50¢ $47 16h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 17h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 86¢ $171 18h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 21h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 8 and 10 million views on BUY Yes 6¢ $0 21h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian pres BUY No 100¢ $30 21h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $0 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 80¢ $21 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 80¢ $56 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $51 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $32 34h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee SELL Yes 25¢ $25 38h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $510 40h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee BUY Yes 9¢ $10 41h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee BUY Yes 10¢ $10 42h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee BUY Yes 2¢ $1 43h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.07 · official $292.21 (match) · 1495 history records