Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:09:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
95 0x9553…5383 other 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+0%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate16%20W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$20
politics 30% −$16
sports 10% +$91
crypto 4% −$2
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 87 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 129 +6.0% -4.1% 16% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 6% -9.4%
10% -13.3% 5% -18.1%
15% -21.7% 5% -26.0%
20% -29.4% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage131d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $439 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 01 $330 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $61 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $324 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 29 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $353 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $315 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $759 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 24 $346 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $280 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $385 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $336 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $282 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $322 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $279 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $355 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $377 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $294 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $319 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $294 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $360 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $302 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $285 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $336 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $268 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $344 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $392 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $374 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $363 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $385 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $387 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $277 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $286 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $351 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $294 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $63 2h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $63 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 16d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 17d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 17d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 18d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $62 19d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $62 19d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 19d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 19d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 20d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 20d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 20d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 20d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $371 21d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $372 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $332 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $332 24d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $353 24d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $353 25d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $315 25d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $315 25d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $268 25d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $268 25d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $375 26d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $375 27d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $346 27d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $346 27d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $280 27d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $280 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 377 history records