Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
95 0x9555…889a sports 1527 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$160 (-1%) realized −$144 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%832W / 670L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$258est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$243
7 days+$306
14 days+$152
30 days+$784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$430
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 +3.9% -6.0% 58% 58% +0.7%
≤30d 896 +3.5% -6.4% 58% 58% -3.9%
≤90d 1502 +0.3% -9.3% 55% 55% -7.5%
all 1502 +0.3% -9.3% 55% 55% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 55% -7.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 55% -16.3%
15% -25.9% 52% -24.4%
20% -33.2% 44% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$144
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses832 / 670
Est. fees paid−$258
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1502 / 1527
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1502 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Over 54¢ 92¢ $16 $28 +$12 (+71%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Over 47¢ 80¢ $14 $25 +$10 (+71%)
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 58¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Over 56¢ 54¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 56¢ 42¢ $17 $13 −$4 (-24%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 47¢ 34¢ $14 $11 −$4 (-27%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Over 52¢ 22¢ $16 $7 −$9 (-59%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 12¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-75%)
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Over 56¢ 10¢ $17 $3 −$14 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 490 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $29 +$21 +73%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $23 +$38 +165%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $24 +$27 +109%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $23 −$23 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $27 −$27 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $29 +$32 +109%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $30 −$29 -98%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 25 $24 +$17 +70%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 25 $25 +$16 +62%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 25 $25 +$16 +63%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants Jun 25 $24 +$16 +67%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 25 $25 +$15 +60%
Darderi vs. Borges: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 25 $13 +$7 +52%
Balshaw vs. Krumich: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 25 $17 +$14 +83%
Quinn vs. Kopriva: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 25 $19 +$11 +61%
Quinn vs. Kopriva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 25 $24 +$7 +27%
Samuel vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 25 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $16 +$15 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$10 +32%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $70 +$75 +107%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $19 −$19 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $21 +$10 +50%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $48 +$20 +41%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $54 −$4 -7%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $36 +$18 +49%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $40 +$14 +35%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $36 −$36 -98%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants Jun 24 $16 +$14 +86%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 24 $18 +$12 +67%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 24 $16 +$15 +93%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 24 $18 −$18 -99%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 24 $21 −$21 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $16 +$14 +86%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $17 +$23 +134%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $43 +$27 +63%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 −$19 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $25 +$16 +62%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $17 +$21 +124%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $14 −$13 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $27 +$13 +48%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 23 $11 +$4 +34%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz Jun 23 $9 +$5 +57%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 23 $10 +$5 +46%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 23 $10 +$9 +90%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants Jun 23 $9 −$9 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $12 −$8 -66%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $12 −$9 -70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $6 −$6 -90%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $13 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $19 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $6 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $12 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $11 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $17 2h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $16 2h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 2h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 2h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $17 2h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 28¢ $29 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $23 4h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $29 4h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $27 4h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 37¢ $23 4h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $24 4h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $30 7h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 7h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 7h
Darderi vs. Borges: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 65¢ $13 14h
Samuel vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 61¢ $19 14h
Quinn vs. Kopriva: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 62¢ $19 14h
Quinn vs. Kopriva: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 78¢ $24 14h
Balshaw vs. Krumich: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 54¢ $17 14h
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Kia Tigers 62¢ $25 18h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 61¢ $25 18h
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins BUY Samsung Lions 58¢ $24 18h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants BUY NC Dinos 59¢ $24 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.82 · official $141.82 (match) · 3500 history records