Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9558…fdc5 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$592 (-9%) realized −$596 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate50%20W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$6
14 days+$2
30 days−$626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$592
other 32% −$18
weather 15% −$4
politics 7% +$10
sports 1% −$17
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +42.8% +29.2% 35% 17% -8.2%
≤30d 40 +23.5% +11.7% 50% 10% -18.3%
≤90d 40 +23.5% +11.7% 50% 10% -18.3%
all 40 +23.5% +11.7% 50% 10% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.7% 10% -18.3%
10% +1.0% 10% -26.1%
15% -8.7% 8% -33.3%
20% -17.7% 8% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$36 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$596
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses20 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)40 / 46
History coverage29d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 98¢ 100¢ $95 $97 +$2 (+2%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $66 $70 +$4 (+5%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+1%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-19%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $37 +$9 +26%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 −$16 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +93%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 +$22 +650%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 +$47 +1521%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $4 $0 -9%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $9 $0 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $76 +$2 +3%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $83 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $81 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $57 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $76 −$10 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $71 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $94 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $67 +$3 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $61 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $86 −$10 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 05 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 05 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $94 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,262 −$471 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $1,805 −$120 -7%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1,990 −$36 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $17 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 21h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 27h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? SELL No 50¢ $4 31h
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 53¢ $4 31h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 39h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $8 45h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $9 45h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $6 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $27 2d
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $92 6d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 54¢ $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $81 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $92 7d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 93¢ $66 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232.11 · official $232.11 (match) · 96 history records