Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9562…99d2 other 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$336 (+34%) realized +$375 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%6W / 27L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$440
sports 13% −$130
crypto 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +10.9% +0.4% 18% 18% +24.8%
≤30d 33 +10.9% +0.4% 18% 18% +24.8%
≤90d 33 +10.9% +0.4% 18% 18% +24.8%
all 33 +10.9% +0.4% 18% 18% +24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 18% +24.8%
10% -9.2% 18% +12.9%
15% -18.0% 18% +2.0%
20% -26.0% 18% -8.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -80% → late +96% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$21 · ×7.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$375
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses6 / 27
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)33 / 37
History coverage2d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Yes 22¢ 21¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-23%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $72 +$223 +312%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $71 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 +$365 +712%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 +$115 +1116%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$98 +65%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$61 +596%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$7 -64%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$8 -81%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$21 +205%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 1m
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 4m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 11h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 22h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 22h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 22h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 22h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 24h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $152 34h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.21 · official $81.21 (match) · 56 history records