Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9565…ec9a sports 878 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (272 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,774 (+19%) realized +$1,799 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%405W / 445L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day272.5pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,008now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,707
7 days+$1,522
14 days+$1,283
30 days+$1,283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$1,458
other 15% +$286
politics 4% −$49
world 1% −$32
crypto 1% −$16
economics 0% +$5
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (272 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 -1.9% -11.2% 50% 44% +8.7%
≤30d 850 -0.1% -9.6% 48% 40% -7.2%
≤90d 850 -0.1% -9.6% 48% 40% -7.2%
all 850 -0.1% -9.6% 48% 40% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover272.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 40% -7.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 34% -16.1%
15% -26.1% 27% -24.2%
20% -33.4% 21% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +15% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,008
Realized+$1,799
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses405 / 445
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions65
Markets (closed)850 / 878
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day272.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 65 History 850 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 65¢ 90¢ $61 $85 +$24 (+39%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 35¢ 60¢ $45 $77 +$32 (+72%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 67¢ 68¢ $71 $72 +$1 (+1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 68¢ 66¢ $65 $63 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 60¢ 58¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Senegal 81¢ 80¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
IR Iran leading at halftime? No 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Algeria 78¢ 78¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 83¢ 80¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 89¢ 88¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Under 17¢ 24¢ $29 $39 +$10 (+35%)
Belgium leading at halftime? No 55¢ 100¢ $20 $35 +$16 (+81%)
Will Jonathan Bush win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 88¢ 99¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Under 88¢ 96¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+9%)
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) New Zealand 76¢ 74¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 42¢ 42¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 23¢ 59¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+157%)
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Uzbekistan 82¢ 78¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-5%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 88¢ 95¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 79¢ 41¢ $21 $11 −$10 (-48%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Under 63¢ 62¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$2 (-16%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 413 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playof Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Tōkyō Verdy vs. Gamba Ōsaka: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Francisca Jorge vs Alba Rey Garcia Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Caserta: Diletta Cherubini vs Alice Rame Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Caijsa Hennemann Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
ITF Wuning: Rina Saigo vs Jiaqi Wang Jun 15 $65 −$65 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 194.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Ursa (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stag Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Elias Ymer Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Viola Turini Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
ITF Caserta: Laura Pigossi vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Wuning: Yufei Ren vs Yanan Hou Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
KBO: LG Twins vs. KT Wiz Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-6.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 +$56 +786%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $24 +$66 +273%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$1,610 +5361%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $27 +$174 +634%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $36 +$86 +242%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $27 +$7 +26%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +76%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $8 +$3 +36%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $28 −$27 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 15 $13 +$5 +38%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 +$41 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $25 23m
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 62¢ $6 27m
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY No 84¢ $1 28m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $26 33m
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 79¢ $15 34m
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $25 35m
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 36m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 36m
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY No 62¢ $25 37m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 17¢ $2 37m
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 90¢ $25 43m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $17 43m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 45m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 28¢ $1 47m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 51m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2 52m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $2 54m
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 22¢ $1 59m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 19¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 19¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $2 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $2 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $25 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 81¢ $25 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $2 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $5 1h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,008.27 · official $1,059.89 · 3500 history records