Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:06:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
95 0x9565…8c79 other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 119L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$238per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$17
politics 32% −$14
sports 12% −$10
crypto 3% −$2
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 133 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage128d
Avg bet$238
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $278 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $262 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $267 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,241 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $401 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $191 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $238 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $172 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $382 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $206 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $193 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $362 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $167 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 17 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $448 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $347 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $178 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $214 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $417 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $179 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $192 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $219 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $223 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $180 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $209 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $164 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $383 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $222 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $210 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $457 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $413 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $202 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $207 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $194 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $633 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 34h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 36h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 39h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 9d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 15d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 15d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 16d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 26d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 28d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $231 28d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $231 28d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $191 28d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $191 29d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $238 29d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $238 30d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $216 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $33.98 (match) · 412 history records