Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:06:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
95 0x9567…eba2 politics 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%12W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 23% −$3
sports 21% −$3
other 20% −$4
world 10% −$2
economics 10% −$2
crypto 8% −$5
culture 6% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 178 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses12 / 166
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)178 / 179
History coverage171d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $29 $0 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 24 $67 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 24 $274 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 24 $207 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 24 $178 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $136 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $263 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 24 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $111 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $207 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $115 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $169 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $152 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $101 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $68 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 23 $204 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $180 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $71 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $60 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $254 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $238 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $54 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $146 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $75 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $119 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $28 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $37 7d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $37 7d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $36 20d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $36 20d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 30d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 31d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 93¢ $28 38d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $29 38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 96¢ $31 121d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $31 121d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 96¢ $34 121d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $34 121d
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 98¢ $33 121d
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 98¢ $33 121d
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 96¢ $31 121d
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $31 121d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 98¢ $36 121d
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $36 121d
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 96¢ $36 121d
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $36 121d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $33 121d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $33 121d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $30 121d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 121d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 121d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 121d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $38 121d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $38 121d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $33 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.22 · official $28.22 (match) · 791 history records